Bitcoin slips below 80,000 dollars ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision, as oil above 100 dollars and a sliding AI trade weigh on risk assets

What happened

Bitcoin starts the last week of October fighting for a level it held comfortably a week ago. The asset fell nearly 2 percent to about 79,800 dollars during Asian morning hours on Monday, CoinDesk reported, dipped further to around 79,300 dollars, and later steadied near 80,400 dollars, little changed since midnight UTC. The move leaves bitcoin on track to end October down about 4 percent if prices close near current levels, Cointelegraph reported, matching the negative October of 2025 rather than the strong Octobers the month is nicknamed for.

The selling was broad across large tokens in the early session. Ether dropped nearly 3 percent to just above 2,300 dollars, XRP lost about 3 percent to 1.28 dollars, and Solana slid 2 percent and was barely holding 100 dollars. Four other large tokens each fell 1 to 2 percent, while one major token was the only one in the green, up less than 1 percent, according to CoinDesk data. Later in the day the board was more mixed, with ether down 0.2 percent and a DeFi index the only CoinDesk index to gain, but no major token had recovered the weekend's losses.

The calendar, not any crypto specific development, is what traders cited. The Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates in September, decides again on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool shows about a 90 percent chance of no change this week, with rates expected to stay in their current 3.75 to 4 percent range, and the real question is December: FedWatch pricing points to about an 80 percent chance of another increase then on CoinDesk's reading, and consensus favouring a quarter point hike in December on Cointelegraph's. A trading executive quoted by CoinDesk put the focus plainly: the Fed probably will not change rates this week, and what matters for crypto is how strongly the chair hints at a December hike, because higher rates mean tighter liquidity for crypto and stocks alike.

Two external pressures framed the session. In Asia, the technology selloff continued: South Korea's Kospi fell 1 percent in early reporting and closed down 1.5 percent at 5,469 points, after strategists at a major bank cut their 12 month target for the index by 25 percent; chip stocks led losses in Japan, Chinese AI developers slumped, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent after four straight weekly declines, its longest losing run since April. Oil provided partial relief later: Brent crude fell about 2 percent from a six month high, first to about 114 dollars and then toward 110 dollars, United States crude fell about 2 percent to near 101 dollars, and S and P 500 futures rose about 0.3 percent after Friday's selloff, as mediators arrived in Tehran on Sunday and the United States president said there would be no strike that day while keeping the option open.

Derivatives positioning, unusually, was calm underneath the spot fall. Open interest rose 0.85 percent to 139.9 billion dollars over 24 hours while liquidations dropped 71 percent to 153 million dollars, CoinDesk reported, and funding stayed mildly positive with no crowded corner. The busiest bitcoin options contract was the October 28 put struck at 77,000 dollars, and one month put skew eased to about 12.5 percent from about 14.5 percent, meaning protection still costs more than upside exposure, but by less than a day earlier. Separately, Cointelegraph reported that almost 150 million dollars of long positions were liquidated over two hours on Saturday as bitcoin fell to 79,145 dollars, with a 73 million dollar wall of bids holding price above 79,300 dollars in its order book snapshot.

Why it matters

This is the third consecutive week in which bitcoin's direction has been set outside crypto, and Monday's session is the cleanest example yet. No protocol failed, no large holder was liquidated in size, no regulator acted against the asset, and the ETF flows that moved the price narrative last week were a Friday figure of 138 million dollars of outflows, material but not decisive. What moved bitcoin below 80,000 dollars was a rate decision that has not happened yet, an oil price set by a conflict in the Middle East, and a reassessment of AI company valuations happening in Seoul, Tokyo and New York. An asset trading this way is functioning, for now, as a high beta liquidity instrument, and its holders are exposed to the full macro calendar whether they follow it or not.

The December question is the mechanism. A hold on Wednesday is priced at about 90 percent and would surprise almost no one; it is the press conference language about December, where markets currently expect another increase, that can reprice liquidity for the rest of the year. Higher expected rates raise the return on holding cash and short term government debt, which competes directly with a non yielding asset, and they tighten the financial conditions that leveraged crypto positioning depends on. That is why a meeting with a near certain outcome can still be the week's largest risk event for this market: the decision is known, the guidance is not.

The calm in derivatives is the session's one genuinely distinguishing feature, and it cuts against a panic reading. In last Wednesday's round trip to 85,000 dollars, 431 million dollars of leveraged positions were forced closed in 24 hours. On Monday, a break below a psychological level produced falling liquidations, rising open interest and neutral funding. Traders were reducing spot exposure ahead of an event, on the evidence of these figures, rather than being forced out of leveraged bets. De risking before a known calendar event and capitulation during one look similar on a price chart and are different conditions underneath, with different implications for what happens when the event passes.

The level itself should be handled carefully. CoinDesk's coverage notes that bitcoin needs to reclaim 82,500 dollars, the floor it lost last Thursday, before buyers can call this dip a pause, and Cointelegraph notes the 80,000 dollar level offered little support on lower time frames despite its psychological status. Neither figure is a forecast, and this site offers no price targets. They are the levels participants themselves are watching, which makes behaviour around them informative: a market that steadies above 80,000 dollars into the decision is positioned differently from one that arrives at Wednesday already below it.

What to watch

Watch Wednesday's decision and, more closely, the press conference. The rate itself is expected to stay in the 3.75 to 4 percent range. Any change in the perceived odds of a December increase, currently priced at roughly 80 percent on one reading, is the variable that can move bitcoin, technology shares and the dollar together in the hour after the announcement.

Watch Thursday's data and earnings, which arrive while the Fed reaction is still fresh. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is released Thursday alongside third quarter GDP figures, and about 20 percent of S and P 500 companies report this week, including major technology results on Wednesday and Thursday. Last month PCE came in at 3.4 percent year on year, lower than expected, on a change in how some elements are calculated, according to Cointelegraph. A hot print would reinforce the December hike case that pressured bitcoin on Monday.

Watch oil, which remains the swing factor in the inflation story. Brent reached 117 dollars on Friday, its highest since March 19, before easing toward 110 dollars on Monday. A return toward that high would revive the inflation pressure behind the hawkish pricing; a sustained fall would remove the newest reason for it.

And watch whether the calm derivatives picture survives the decision. Liquidations of 153 million dollars and neutral funding describe a market that has de risked in an orderly way. A sharp move on the Fed language, in either direction, hitting a market whose busiest options contract is a 77,000 dollar put expiring October 28, would test whether that orderliness was positioning or simply quiet.